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Intelligent Data Acquisition and Information Process Technologies
and Their Applications. Part II.




Vol. 19, Special Issue, February 2013, pp.39-44



Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity


Ning Lu

School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, 430070, China

Tel.: +86-027-15871682299

E-mail: susanln@163.com



Received: 4 December 2012   /Accepted: 15 January 2013   /Published: 19 February 2013

Digital Sensors and Sensor Sysstems


Abstract: Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions.


Keywords: Human body amenity, Support vector machine, Short-term load forecasting, Confidence level, Probabilistic forecasting


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